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Alcoa Corp

AACIK 0001675149

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Intrinsic Value

AA Intrinsic Valuation

Review the filing-backed discounted cash flow baseline, scenario range, and capital structure context for a fundamentals-first fair value read.

Intrinsic Value

AA Intrinsic Valuation

Review the filing-backed discounted cash flow baseline, scenario range, and capital structure context for a fundamentals-first fair value read.

Intrinsic value

Filing-backed DCF baseline

Automated free-cash-flow DCF baseline for Alcoa Corp, derived from annual filing data.

Read the DCF guide

DCF fair value

$16.87

Implied equity value $4B

Current price

—

Latest available quote for the primary listing.

Margin of safety

N/A

Live market price unavailable. Refreshing the route will retry the quote.

Fair value range

$14.65 – $19.76

Bear

$14.65

Base

$16.87

Bull

$19.76

Model assumptions

Cash flow base

$274M

Basis

Operating cash flow less capex (firm-value proxy)

Growth

6.7%

Discount

10.5%

Terminal

2.5%

Horizon

Assumption sensitivity

vs base per share

Base case$16.87Baseline

Growth +1 pt$18.78+$1.91

Intrinsic value

Filing-backed DCF baseline

Automated free-cash-flow DCF baseline for Alcoa Corp, derived from annual filing data.

Read the DCF guide

DCF fair value

$16.87

Implied equity value $4B

Current price

—

Latest available quote for the primary listing.

Margin of safety

N/A

Live market price unavailable. Refreshing the route will retry the quote.

Fair value range

$14.65 – $19.76

Bear

$14.65

Base

$16.87

Bull

$19.76

Model assumptions

Cash flow base

$274M

Basis

Operating cash flow less capex (firm-value proxy)

Growth

6.7%

Discount

10.5%

Terminal

2.5%

Horizon

Assumption sensitivity

vs base per share

Base case$16.87Baseline

Growth +1 pt$18.78+$1.91

What the market is pricing in

Market expectations cannot be backed out until price, share count, cash-flow base, discount rate, terminal growth, and the EV-to-equity bridge are all available.
Growth anchor: Median of 3Y revenue CAGR, 5Y revenue CAGR, and 5Y free cash flow CAGR. Scenario-derived from +/-2 pts growth and +/-1 pt discount.
Net cash increases equity value relative to firm value before the per-share target is calculated.

Intrinsic EV-to-equity bridge

Enterprise value

Discounted free cash flows

$4B

Less total debt

− $2B

Plus cash and equivalents

+ $3B

Equity value

After the bridge

$4B

Diluted shares

261,000,000

Fair value / share

$16.87