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Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.

AXTACIK 0001616862

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Intrinsic Value

AXTA Intrinsic Valuation

Review the filing-backed discounted cash flow baseline, scenario range, and capital structure context for a fundamentals-first fair value read.

Intrinsic Value

AXTA Intrinsic Valuation

Review the filing-backed discounted cash flow baseline, scenario range, and capital structure context for a fundamentals-first fair value read.

Intrinsic value

Filing-backed DCF baseline

Automated free-cash-flow DCF baseline for Axalta Coating Systems Ltd., derived from annual filing data.

Read the DCF guide

DCF fair value

$11.17

Implied equity value $2B

Current price

$34.10

Latest available quote for the primary listing.

Margin of safety

-67.3%

Base case against the live quote.

Fair value range

$7.91 – $15.65

Bear

$7.91

Base

$11.17

Bull

$15.65

Current

$34.10

Model assumptions

Cash flow base

$396M

Basis

Operating cash flow less capex (firm-value proxy)

Growth

1.6%

Discount

10.5%

Terminal

2.5%

Horizon

Assumption sensitivity

vs base per share

Base case$11.17Baseline

Growth +1 pt$11.72+$0.56

Intrinsic value

Filing-backed DCF baseline

Automated free-cash-flow DCF baseline for Axalta Coating Systems Ltd., derived from annual filing data.

Read the DCF guide

DCF fair value

$11.17

Implied equity value $2B

Current price

$34.10

Latest available quote for the primary listing.

Margin of safety

-67.3%

Base case against the live quote.

Fair value range

$7.91 – $15.65

Bear

$7.91

Base

$11.17

Bull

$15.65

Current

$34.10

Model assumptions

Cash flow base

$396M

Basis

Operating cash flow less capex (firm-value proxy)

Growth

1.6%

Discount

10.5%

Terminal

2.5%

Horizon

Assumption sensitivity

vs base per share

Base case$11.17Baseline

Growth +1 pt$11.72+$0.56

What the market is pricing in

At $34.10 the market is pricing in roughly 19.3% annual growth under this model.
Growth anchor: Median of 3Y revenue CAGR, 5Y revenue CAGR, and 5Y free cash flow CAGR. Scenario-derived from +/-2 pts growth and +/-1 pt discount.
Net debt reduces equity value relative to firm value before the per-share target is calculated.

Intrinsic EV-to-equity bridge

Enterprise value

Discounted free cash flows

$5B

Less total debt

− $3B

Plus cash and equivalents

+ $657M

Equity value

After the bridge

$2B

Diluted shares

217,000,000

Fair value / share

$11.17