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Marathon Petroleum Corp

MPCCIK 0001510295

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Intrinsic Value

MPC Intrinsic Valuation

Review the filing-backed discounted cash flow baseline, scenario range, and capital structure context for a fundamentals-first fair value read.

Intrinsic Value

MPC Intrinsic Valuation

Review the filing-backed discounted cash flow baseline, scenario range, and capital structure context for a fundamentals-first fair value read.

Intrinsic value

Filing-backed DCF baseline

Automated free-cash-flow DCF baseline for Marathon Petroleum Corp, derived from annual filing data.

Read the DCF guide

DCF fair value

$213.72

Implied equity value $65B

Current price

—

Latest available quote for the primary listing.

Margin of safety

N/A

Live market price unavailable. Refreshing the route will retry the quote.

Fair value range

$176.29 – $274.68

Bear

$176.29

Base

$213.72

Bull

$274.68

Model assumptions

Cash flow base

$8B

Basis

Operating cash flow less capex (firm-value proxy)

Growth

0.5%

Discount

10.5%

Terminal

2.5%

Horizon

Assumption sensitivity

vs base per share

Base case$213.72Baseline

Growth +1 pt$214.67+$0.94

Intrinsic value

Filing-backed DCF baseline

Automated free-cash-flow DCF baseline for Marathon Petroleum Corp, derived from annual filing data.

Read the DCF guide

DCF fair value

$213.72

Implied equity value $65B

Current price

—

Latest available quote for the primary listing.

Margin of safety

N/A

Live market price unavailable. Refreshing the route will retry the quote.

Fair value range

$176.29 – $274.68

Bear

$176.29

Base

$213.72

Bull

$274.68

Model assumptions

Cash flow base

$8B

Basis

Operating cash flow less capex (firm-value proxy)

Growth

0.5%

Discount

10.5%

Terminal

2.5%

Horizon

Assumption sensitivity

vs base per share

Base case$213.72Baseline

Growth +1 pt$214.67+$0.94

What the market is pricing in

Market expectations cannot be backed out until price, share count, cash-flow base, discount rate, terminal growth, and the EV-to-equity bridge are all available.
Growth anchor: Median of 3Y revenue CAGR, 5Y revenue CAGR, and 5Y free cash flow CAGR. Scenario-derived from +/-2 pts growth and +/-1 pt discount.
Net debt reduces equity value relative to firm value before the per-share target is calculated.

Intrinsic EV-to-equity bridge

Enterprise value

Discounted free cash flows

$95B

Less total debt

− $33B

Plus cash and equivalents

+ $4B

Equity value

After the bridge

$65B

Diluted shares

306,000,000

Fair value / share

$213.72