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UNION PACIFIC CORP

UNPCIK 0000100885

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Intrinsic Value

UNP Intrinsic Valuation

Review the filing-backed discounted cash flow baseline, scenario range, and capital structure context for a fundamentals-first fair value read.

Intrinsic Value

UNP Intrinsic Valuation

Review the filing-backed discounted cash flow baseline, scenario range, and capital structure context for a fundamentals-first fair value read.

Intrinsic value

Filing-backed DCF baseline

Automated free-cash-flow DCF baseline for UNION PACIFIC CORP, derived from annual filing data.

Read the DCF guide

DCF fair value

$76.29

Implied equity value $45B

Current price

$280.92

Latest available quote for the primary listing.

Margin of safety

-72.8%

Base case against the live quote.

Fair value range

$60.40 – $104.57

Bear

$60.40

Base

$76.29

Bull

$104.57

Current

$280.92

Model assumptions

Cash flow base

$5B

Basis

Operating cash flow less capex (firm-value proxy)

Growth

0.0%

Discount

9.5%

Terminal

2.5%

Horizon

Assumption sensitivity

vs base per share

Base case$76.29Baseline

Growth +1 pt$75.39-$0.89

Intrinsic value

Filing-backed DCF baseline

Automated free-cash-flow DCF baseline for UNION PACIFIC CORP, derived from annual filing data.

Read the DCF guide

DCF fair value

$76.29

Implied equity value $45B

Current price

$280.92

Latest available quote for the primary listing.

Margin of safety

-72.8%

Base case against the live quote.

Fair value range

$60.40 – $104.57

Bear

$60.40

Base

$76.29

Bull

$104.57

Current

$280.92

Model assumptions

Cash flow base

$5B

Basis

Operating cash flow less capex (firm-value proxy)

Growth

0.0%

Discount

9.5%

Terminal

2.5%

Horizon

Assumption sensitivity

vs base per share

Base case$76.29Baseline

Growth +1 pt$75.39-$0.89

What the market is pricing in

At $280.92 the market is pricing in roughly 25.0% annual growth under this model.
Growth anchor: Median of 3Y revenue CAGR, 5Y revenue CAGR, and 5Y free cash flow CAGR. Scenario-derived from +/-2 pts growth and +/-1 pt discount.
Net debt reduces equity value relative to firm value before the per-share target is calculated.

Intrinsic EV-to-equity bridge

Enterprise value

Discounted free cash flows

$76B

Less total debt

− $32B

Plus cash and equivalents

+ $1B

Equity value

After the bridge

$45B

Diluted shares

595,900,000

Fair value / share

$76.29