Edwyn

Edwyn Search companies, tickers, CIKs…⌘K

NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO

NFGCIK 0000070145Utilities

Compare:NRG SR PEG DTE PCG UGI

Compare NFG

Intrinsic Value

NFG Intrinsic Valuation

Review the filing-backed discounted cash flow baseline, scenario range, and capital structure context for a fundamentals-first fair value read.

Intrinsic Value

NFG Intrinsic Valuation

Review the filing-backed discounted cash flow baseline, scenario range, and capital structure context for a fundamentals-first fair value read.

Intrinsic value

Filing-backed DCF baseline

Automated free-cash-flow DCF baseline for NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO, derived from annual filing data.

Read the DCF guide

DCF fair value

-$6.10

Implied equity value -$556M

Current price

$80.35

Latest available quote for the primary listing.

Margin of safety

-107.6%

Base case against the live quote.

Fair value range

-$9.77 – -$1.32

Bear

-$9.77

Base

-$6.10

Bull

-$1.32

Current

$80.35

Model assumptions

Cash flow base

$154M

Basis

Operating cash flow less capex (firm-value proxy)

Growth

8.1%

Discount

10.5%

Terminal

2.5%

Horizon

Assumption sensitivity

vs base per share

Base case-$6.10Baseline

Growth +1 pt-$2.21+$3.89

Intrinsic value

Filing-backed DCF baseline

Automated free-cash-flow DCF baseline for NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO, derived from annual filing data.

Read the DCF guide

DCF fair value

-$6.10

Implied equity value -$556M

Current price

$80.35

Latest available quote for the primary listing.

Margin of safety

-107.6%

Base case against the live quote.

Fair value range

-$9.77 – -$1.32

Bear

-$9.77

Base

-$6.10

Bull

-$1.32

Current

$80.35

Model assumptions

Cash flow base

$154M

Basis

Operating cash flow less capex (firm-value proxy)

Growth

8.1%

Discount

10.5%

Terminal

2.5%

Horizon

Assumption sensitivity

vs base per share

Base case-$6.10Baseline

Growth +1 pt-$2.21+$3.89

What the market is pricing in

At $80.35 the market implies growth above 40.0% under this DCF setup — an aggressive outcome.
Growth anchor: Median of 3Y revenue CAGR, 5Y revenue CAGR, and 5Y free cash flow CAGR. Scenario-derived from +/-2 pts growth and +/-1 pt discount.
Net debt reduces equity value relative to firm value before the per-share target is calculated.

Intrinsic EV-to-equity bridge

Enterprise value

Discounted free cash flows

$2B

Less total debt

− $3B

Plus cash and equivalents

+ $43M

Equity value

After the bridge

-$556M

Diluted shares

91,227,473

Fair value / share

-$6.10